Air Canada forecasts CA$375M Q3 loss from CUPE strike, warns of full-year impact

Air Canada has estimated that a three-day strike by flight attendants in August 2025 will cost the carrier approximately CA$375 million in operating income. 

In its preliminary results for the third quarter of 2025, released on September 24, 2025, the airline said that this amount comes from three components: CA$430 million in lost revenue, CA$145 million in avoided costs, and CA$90 million in extra customer and labor-related expenses. 

During the collective bargaining with the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), the union representing its flight attendants, Air Canada said it developed “comprehensive plans” to safely and efficiently wind down and restart its operations. 

When CUPE announced its intention to strike, Air Canada implemented these plans but ended up canceling over 3,200 flights in August 2025. 

“Air Canada deeply regrets the impact of the disruption on its customers and remains committed to resolving every claim submitted by affected customers quickly and accurately, having done so for more than 60,000 claims to date,” the carrier said. 

The airline estimates lower Q3 earnings 

According to its early results for Q3 2025, the airline announced that it anticipates a 2% decrease in operating capacity compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to over 3,200 flight cancellations resulting from the strike. 

The airline projects its operating income for Q3 2025 to be between CA$250 and $300 million, which includes approximately CA$175 million from one-time, non-cash pension plan changes and other labor-related expenses. 

The adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from CA$950 million to $1 billion, a decline from Q3 2024’s operating income of CA$1.040 billion and adjusted EBITDA of CA$1.523 billion. 

Air Canada revises full-year forecast after strike 

Air Canada has updated its full-year 2025 forecast due to the CUPE labor disruption. While the airline did not specify total revenue or revenue loss in its 2025 guidance, it did share other financial metrics. 

The airline anticipates adjusted EBITDA of CA$2.9–$3.1 billion for the full year in 2025, which is slightly lower than previous estimates, and it plans a small capacity increase of 0.5–1.5% compared to 2024.  

Additionally, it expects higher unit costs and free cash flow ranging from -$50 million to CA$150 million for the year. The post Air Canada forecasts CA$375M Q3 loss from CUPE strike, warns of full-year impact appeared first on AeroTime.

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