Analysis: How airspace violations threaten NATO and Europe’s security

During the past year, the skies over Europe have turned into an arena of quiet conflict.  

Unexplained drone intrusions and short airspace breaches by foreign military aircraft in several NATO countries have disturbed civilian activities and alarmed both officials and the public. 

Although none of these events have resulted in direct conflict, their timing and coordination suggest they are more than a coincidence. Dr. Sean M. Maloney, a history professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, describes what we are seeing as grey zone warfare, the so-called space in between peace and war. 

As a Cold War and modern military expert, Dr. Maloney has dedicated his career to studying international conflicts. He served as Historical Advisor to the Canadian Army in Afghanistan, becoming the first Canadian civilian military historian to enter combat since World War 2. 

Using exclusive insights from Dr. Maloney, AeroTime explores the patterns, risks, and impact of the ongoing airspace violations in Europe.

Timeline of airspace violations

At the time of writing, AeroTime reported that NATO-controlled skies in various European countries had been disrupted 21 times in the past five months.  

Below is a brief overview of events that occurred in European airspace from July to November 2025:

November 10, 2025An unauthorized drone flew over the Eurenco industrial site in Bergerac city, France, which produces explosives and shell propellants for the French and European armies.November 6, 2025Flights at Göteborg Landvetter Airport (GOT) in the Swedish city of Gothenburg were temporarily paused due to drone activity in the airport’s territory. November 4, 2025Airspace over multiple Belgian airports was temporarily shut down due to reports of drone sightings. The affected airports included Brussels Airport (BRU), Liège Airport (LGG), Antwerp International Airport (ANR), Ostend–Bruges International Airport (OST), and Brussels South Charleroi Airport (CRL). November 1–2, 2025Multiple drone incursions occurred at the Kleine Brogel Air Base and other locations in Belgium, which Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken described as a “clear command targeting Kleine Brogel”. October 31, 2025Flights were suspended for almost two hours at Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER) due to sightings of unidentified drones. October 29–30, 2025Unidentified drones were spotted over the Marche-en-Famenne military base in southern Belgium. October 25–26, 2025Lithuania closed its border with Belarus after contraband balloons launched from the country disrupted operations at Vilnius (VNO) and Kaunas (KUN) airports. Vilnius Airport was forced to shut down several times in two weeks because of these incursions. October 23, 2025Russian military aircraft briefly entered Lithuanian airspace, leading to NATO jets being placed on Quick Reaction Alert. October 2–3, 2025Munich Airport (MUC) in Germany was closed overnight due to several drone sightings. October 2, 202515 unidentified drones were spotted flying over Elsenborn-Butgenbach Air Base in eastern Belgium. September 26–27, 2025Drones were observed above Air Base Karup in Denmark, leading authorities to close the airspace to commercial flights. September 26, 2025Lithuania recorded three prohibited drone flights in the area of Vilnius Airport (VNO), which disrupted airport’s operations.  September 24–25, 2025Unidentified drones were spotted at four Danish airports, Aalborg (AAL), Esbjerg (EBJ), Sønderborg (SGD), and near Skrydstrup (SKS). Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen qualified the drone sightings as a systematic hybrid attack by a “professional actor”. September 22, 2025Copenhagen Airport (CPH) halted all flights for four hours due to reports of several large drones. A drone was also observed near Oslo Airport (OSL) in Norway on the same day. September 21–22, 2025Unidentified drones flew over Mourmelon-le-Grand military base in France.September 15, 2025Poland’s State Protection Service neutralized a drone that was flying over government buildings in Warsaw. September 13, 2025Two NATO F-16s, later joined by German Eurofighters, intercepted a Russian drone in Romanian airspace. The drone violated the country’s airspace for about 50 minutes. September 9–10, 2025At least 19 Russian drones violated Polish airspace in what the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called an intentional “test” for NATO. September 7, 2025Estonia filed a formal protest after a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace for approximately four minutes. July 28, 2025Another Russian-designed Gerbera drone carrying explosives overflew Vilnius and later crashed in a military training area in central Lithuania. July 10, 2025A Gerbera drone violated Lithuanian airspace and crashed near the Belarus border, prompting authorities to tighten airspace security measures. Pattern or provocation?

The fundamental principle highlighted in Article 1 of the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation states that each country has complete authority over the airspace above its land and territorial waters. 

Both the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) define an aircraft as “unauthorized” if it operates outside its designated area or violates a sovereign country’s airspace rules. 

Such legal frameworks make clear why any violation – intentional or not – quickly escalates from an aviation safety concern to a broader geopolitical issue. 

Dr. Maloney explained that the ongoing airspace breaches in Europe mirror Cold War strategies but are accelerated by new technologies and social media – a period he calls “The Cool War”. 

According to Dr. Maloney, it is important to differentiate between types of airspace incursions, and each case should be evaluated based on specific circumstances and the prevailing political or diplomatic situation. 

“High-speed buzzing of a Polish oil platform is different from a handful of quadcopters deployed by Beijing-regime agents near a military airbase in Norway, which then differs from a swarm of unmanned vehicles used to shut down major airports launched from ‘ghost ships’,” he explained. 

Dr. Sean M. Maloney / Credit: Maloney personal archivesReflecting on recent events, Dr. Maloney highlighted that none of the airspace breaches that took place over the course of the last couple of months were random. Instead, they form a deliberate pattern of calibrated airspace provocations.  

Understanding grey zone warfare

Dr. Maloney believes that current airspace incidents in Europe are closely tied to Russia and its allies. Moscow, however, has denied any involvement. 

Recently, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov warned Europe against blaming Russia for the airspace incursions, suggesting that European leaders should broaden their perspectives instead. 

NATO has rejected this viewpoint stating that Russia “bears full responsibility for these actions, which are escalatory, risk miscalculation and endanger lives.”  

While some experts describe Russia’s actions as “hybrid threats”, Dr. Maloney said he prefers to classify them as “grey zone warfare”. This term describes a type of conflict that exists between war and peace, involving actions that harm another state and may be considered acts of war, even if they are not legally recognized as such. 

Dr. Maloney explained that during the Cold War era the Soviet Union carried out similar provocations to the airspace violations Europe is witnessing today.  

These included intercepting and harassing Western C-54 transport aircraft during the 1949 Berlin Airlift, firing anti-aircraft artillery near designated air corridors, and even severing undersea communication cables used by US nuclear forces during the 1961 Berlin Crisis. 

The professor recommended holding a critical approach to Russia’s actions, suggesting that everything it does or will do “is provocation or an event that will be exploited for information warfare effects”.   

How much do airspace violations cost?

The costs for airline compensation, care, and assistance related to delays are substantial, sometimes reaching billions of dollars annually, with airlines being liable for penalties even if the cause of delays is beyond their control.  

According to a financial outlook for the airline industry in 2025 from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), compensation for flight cancellations, delays, or denied boarding costs airlines approximately $5.68 billion annually. 

Against this backdrop, additional airspace violations introduce extra financial risks, putting additional pressure on airlines, airports, and passengers, leading to significant economic impacts. 

The Digital Travel Summit APAC 2026 report indicates that flight disruptions cost airlines around 5% of their revenue. When considering the broader effects on travelers, businesses, and the entire travel ecosystem, total losses can reach about $60 billion, or roughly 8% of airline revenue. 

For airports, even brief disruptions can be expensive. A study from September 2024 found that loss costs for airports can make up nearly 65% of their total expenses, regardless of traffic levels. 

While there is limited information on the specific amounts, estimates indicate that even short disruptions at airports can have a major effect. For example, Vilnius Airport stated that all closures due to smuggling balloons cost passengers, airlines, and the airport “hundreds of thousands of euros”. 

“These incidents have clearly demonstrated to the Russians and their targets how vulnerable commercial aviation and thus economic sectors based on it are to these kinds of low-level, low-cost operations,” Dr. Maloney said. “Clearly the use of small UAVs in swarms is of considerable concern to military aviation. As before, technical and procedural adaptation should take place to counter future moves and mitigate any effects.” 

Europe’s challenge: responding to Russian provocations

Dr. Maloney said that Mátyás Rákosi, the Hungarian Communist leader, created the phrase “Hungarian salami tactics” to describe small, unnoticed actions aimed at weakening an opponent’s will to fight. He believes this is what we are witnessing in Europe right now. 

“The idea that all of what we have been talking about somehow fits into some form of escalatory framework that inevitably leads to nuclear weapons use if NATO responds in any way at any level to Russian provocation is a Russian information operations line that sits in the background of this discussion and lurks within Western academia,” he explained. 

Dr. Maloney’s message is clear: Europe cannot afford complacency in the face of persistent provocations. The professor emphasized that it is essential to confront and respond to Russian provocations in any form during this type of indirect conflict.  

“The Russians can say what they like. We know that whatever they do, there is an ulterior motive for it,” Dr. Maloney said “We must act accordingly and stop giving them the benefit of the doubt. If we do not respond, they will keep pushing.”The post Analysis: How airspace violations threaten NATO and Europe’s security appeared first on AeroTime.

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