ATR sees 16 million-passenger market in untapped Indonesian routes

Franco-Italian turboprop aircraft manufacturer ATR has identified 209 new domestic air routes across Indonesia that it says would be economically viable using regional turboprop planes. 

The company points to a market of roughly 16 million passengers a year that remains largely untapped despite existing airport infrastructure.

According to ATR, 70 of Indonesia’s 180 paved-runway airports currently have no scheduled passenger service at all, leaving significant room for new domestic routes without the need for major infrastructure investment.

Inside ATR’s data: tracking 780 million journeys

The findings come from ATR’s proprietary MobilityMonitor platform, which tracked the travel patterns of 35 million Indonesian residents, a sample the company says is representative of the broader population. 

That group made roughly 780 million inter-city journeys over the course of a year, using a mix of cars, motorbikes, buses, ferries, trains, and planes.

Around 90% of those journeys fell between 100 and 800 kilometers, a distance range ATR says is well suited to turboprop aircraft. 

By cross-referencing the most common travel routes with Indonesia’s existing airport network, and then scaling the sample data to estimate total market size, ATR arrived at its list of 209 potential air routes.

Outer islands stand to benefit most

#image_titleThe data shows that 88% of these potential routes, representing about 14 million passengers annually, are intra-island connections rather than routes between islands. 

Notably, 90% of the identified routes fall on islands other than Java, including Sumatra, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, Papua, and Maluku.

That imbalance reflects Indonesia’s uneven infrastructure. Java, despite making up only about 7% of the country’s land area, contains roughly 58% of its motorway network. Kalimantan, by contrast, is about four times larger than Java but has only around 5% of the country’s motorways.

ATR’s data illustrates just how much that gap affects mobility. Average surface travel speeds in Java reach around 65 kilometers per hour thanks to its more developed road and rail systems, while speeds elsewhere in the archipelago drop to between 26 and 37 kilometers per hour. 

Distances tend to be longer on the outer islands too, often exceeding 350 kilometers and reaching nearly 480 kilometers in parts of Papua.

Sumatra and Sulawesi lead the opportunity

ATR identified Sumatra and Sulawesi as the largest potential markets for regional aviation, driven by strong travel demand across a wide range of new city-pair connections.

One example cited by the company is the Bengkulu-Pekanbaru (BKS-PKU) route in Sumatra, where a road trip can take more than 18 hours, compared to roughly one hour by direct flight. ATR estimates demand along that corridor could support two daily flights.

ATR sees an opening for turboprops

Alexis Vidal, ATR’s Senior Vice-President, Commercial, said the data points to a large, largely untapped market. “The demand is there, as is the airport infrastructure. What is needed now is the right aircraft,” Vidal said.

He added that MobilityMonitor has also revealed just how uneven mobility is across the Indonesian archipelago, but said regional air services could help close that gap. 

“By connecting communities across the archipelago using regional air services, it will help to drive economic growth, provide greater access to essential services and create more opportunities for people,” Vidal said.

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ATR sees 16 million-passenger market in untapped Indonesian routes

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