Europe weighs modernizing Antonov An-124 or building its own C-17 successor

A European Union-funded study on strategic airlift has identified two options for sustaining Europe’s outsized cargo capacity: a deep modernization of the Antonov An-124-100 fleet or the development of a new European aircraft to replace the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III.

The European Defence Agency (EDA) set out the findings of the European System for Outsized Cargo Airlift (ESOCA) study, after the industrial consortium behind it presented its conclusions to the agency on September 8, 2026.

The EDA said EU member states will examine those conclusions, along with open questions on the underlying operational requirements, at the Strategic Transport Days in Brussels on October 21 and 22, 2026.

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ESOCA was selected under the European Defence Fund 2023 call as an 18-month study with a maximum EU contribution of just under 20 million euros, according to the European Commission project factsheet.

Airbus Defence and Space GmbH coordinates a consortium of 14 entities from eight countries: Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain. Leonardo, Safran Aircraft Engines, and ITP Aero are among the members.

A German Bundeswehr CH-53 heavy-lift helicopter being loaded into an Airbus BelugaST. (Credit: Airbus Defence and Space)Airbus had pursued its own interim answer to the outsized cargo shortage with a charter operation flying BelugaST aircraft. However, the BelugaST’s 40-tonne payload was just a third of the An-124’s 120 tonnes, limiting its suitability for the heaviest military cargo. The manufacturer shut down Airbus Beluga Transport in January 2025, citing a lack of external customers.

The study feeds the Strategic Air Transport for Outsized Cargo (SATOC) project, a Permanent Structured Cooperation initiative established in November 2021 and coordinated by Germany, with Czechia, France, and the Netherlands as members.

The SATOC project leaflet warns of a potential gap in strategic airlift in the 100-ton class in the 2030s, citing the aging of the chartered An-124s and the absence of any option to acquire aircraft in that class.

It expects C-17s operated by EU member states to reach the end of their service lives in the 2040s. Boeing ended C-17 production in 2015.

Antonov fleet faces aging and security risks

As of September 2026, European access to the An-124 runs through NATO’s Strategic Airlift International Solution (SALIS), a nine-nation partnership chartering up to five An-124-100s, each able to carry up to 120 tons, from Antonov Logistics SALIS.

NATO states that its Support and Procurement Agency signed a five-year contract with the company in October 2021. The SATOC leaflet expects the SALIS arrangement to expire in the early 2030s.

Destroyed Antonov An-225 Mriya at Kyiv Hostomel Airport. (Dmytro Larin / Shutterstock.com)Europe’s access to Ukrainian heavy-lift aircraft had already suffered a major blow in February 2022, when the world’s only completed Antonov An-225 Mriya was destroyed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at Hostomel Airport (GML) near Kyiv. With a maximum payload of 250 tonnes, the aircraft occupied a class above the An-124 and provided a unique capability for transporting exceptionally heavy and oversized cargo.

The An-124 fleet’s vulnerability was further underlined on August 4, 2026, when an explosive drone struck a parked Antonov Airlines An-124 at Leipzig/Halle Airport (LEJ), the SALIS operating base, although the detonator failed to function. Germany since attributed the attack to Russia.

NATO’s pooled fleets offer only a partial solution

Twelve NATO allies separately operate three C-17s through the Strategic Airlift Capability at Pápa Air Base, Hungary.

Seven allies also launched an initiative to establish a pooled Airbus A400M fleet on July 7, 2026.

However, the A400M cannot fully replace the An-124 in the heaviest cargo category. The SATOC project acknowledges that while the European transport aircraft can partially mitigate the capability gap, its size and payload impose limits.

With the study now in hand, EU member states must determine whether extending the service life of the existing Antonovs can provide a sustainable solution or whether a new European aircraft is needed to secure this capability over the longer term.The post Europe weighs modernizing Antonov An-124 or building its own C-17 successor appeared first on AeroTime.

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