Facing US Uncertainty Portugal Seeks European Alternatives to F-35 Fighter Jet
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The evolution of U.S. policy toward NATO has led the Portuguese Ministry of Defense to reassess its combat aircraft acquisition strategy. This resulted in the abandonment of Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. Defense Minister Nuno Melo confirmed this decision in an interview with the Portuguese daily Público. This Decision reflects growing concerns about the reliability of U.S. commitments to European allies.
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Due to U.S. political uncertainties and F-35 restrictions, Portugal is opting for European alternatives like the Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Gripen to replace its aging F-16 fleet (Picture source: Dassault/Eurofighter/US DoD/ Saab)
Donald Trump’s election and controversial statements on NATO, including threats to reduce U.S. funding for the alliance and criticism of European partners’ financial contributions, have raised doubts among member states. Trump has also suggested that the United States may no longer ensure Europe’s security with the same level of commitment as in the past. As a result, several European nations, including Portugal, are reassessing their procurement strategies for U.S. military equipment to maintain greater defense autonomy.
The F-35 had initially been identified as the ideal replacement for Portugal’s aging F-16 fleet, a transition that seemed logical given its adoption by several NATO members, including the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Poland, and Germany. In April 2024, the Chief of Staff of the Portuguese Air Force, General João Cartaxo Alves, stated that the transition to the F-35A was already underway. However, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and potential U.S. restrictions on foreign-operated F-35s have made this acquisition less viable.
Beyond diplomatic concerns, the F-35’s high cost remains a significant obstacle. Each aircraft costs approximately $82 million, while operational costs reach $33,000 per flight hour. Maintenance expenses are four times higher than those of the F-16 currently in service. Additionally, Washington could impose operational restrictions on exported aircraft, particularly by controlling access to software updates and critical maintenance components. These potential restrictions, referred to by some as a “kill switch,” raise concerns about Portugal’s autonomy in operating these fighters.
Given these uncertainties, Lisbon is now exploring alternative solutions, particularly within Europe. While Defense Minister Nuno Melo declined to comment on a potential acquisition of the Dassault Rafale, it remains one of the leading contenders. The Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen E/F are also under consideration, offering options that are less dependent on U.S. constraints. Additionally, the Turkish-made KAAN stealth fighter, currently under development by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), could become a viable choice in the long term.
The four aircraft being considered—F-35A Lightning II, Dassault Rafale, Saab JAS 39 Gripen, and Eurofighter Typhoon—each offer distinct capabilities suited to different operational requirements. The F-35A, a fifth-generation aircraft, stands out for its stealth, advanced avionics, and data fusion capabilities, enabling operations in contested environments. However, its high costs and U.S. export restrictions impose significant constraints. The Rafale, developed by Dassault, is recognized for its multirole versatility, electronic warfare capabilities (SPECTRA), AESA radar, and operational autonomy. The Gripen, a lightweight and cost-effective fighter, emphasizes interoperability with NATO systems, simplified maintenance, and the ability to operate from austere airfields. Meanwhile, the Eurofighter Typhoon, developed through a European consortium, is highly capable in air superiority missions, featuring advanced sensors, high agility, and strong survivability, though it has higher operational costs.
If Portugal seeks a balance between performance, autonomy, and cost, the Rafale appears to be the most suitable option. It offers a proven and scalable platform with fewer operational constraints than the F-35A. The Eurofighter Typhoon, while highly capable, is expensive and more specialized for air superiority missions. The Gripen, as a lower-cost alternative, could be viable for a smaller air force looking for a flexible and economical solution.
Portugal will need to make a decision in the coming years as its F-16 fleet nears the end of its service life. The transition to a new aircraft could span a decade, with an estimated budget of €5.5 billion. This assessment is also part of a broader discussion on European strategic independence, as the EU considers expanding its defense cooperation initiatives.
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The evolution of U.S. policy toward NATO has led the Portuguese Ministry of Defense to reassess its combat aircraft acquisition strategy. This resulted in the abandonment of Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. Defense Minister Nuno Melo confirmed this decision in an interview with the Portuguese daily Público. This Decision reflects growing concerns about the reliability of U.S. commitments to European allies.
Due to U.S. political uncertainties and F-35 restrictions, Portugal is opting for European alternatives like the Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Gripen to replace its aging F-16 fleet (Picture source: Dassault/Eurofighter/US DoD/ Saab)
Donald Trump’s election and controversial statements on NATO, including threats to reduce U.S. funding for the alliance and criticism of European partners’ financial contributions, have raised doubts among member states. Trump has also suggested that the United States may no longer ensure Europe’s security with the same level of commitment as in the past. As a result, several European nations, including Portugal, are reassessing their procurement strategies for U.S. military equipment to maintain greater defense autonomy.
The F-35 had initially been identified as the ideal replacement for Portugal’s aging F-16 fleet, a transition that seemed logical given its adoption by several NATO members, including the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Poland, and Germany. In April 2024, the Chief of Staff of the Portuguese Air Force, General João Cartaxo Alves, stated that the transition to the F-35A was already underway. However, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and potential U.S. restrictions on foreign-operated F-35s have made this acquisition less viable.
Beyond diplomatic concerns, the F-35’s high cost remains a significant obstacle. Each aircraft costs approximately $82 million, while operational costs reach $33,000 per flight hour. Maintenance expenses are four times higher than those of the F-16 currently in service. Additionally, Washington could impose operational restrictions on exported aircraft, particularly by controlling access to software updates and critical maintenance components. These potential restrictions, referred to by some as a “kill switch,” raise concerns about Portugal’s autonomy in operating these fighters.
Given these uncertainties, Lisbon is now exploring alternative solutions, particularly within Europe. While Defense Minister Nuno Melo declined to comment on a potential acquisition of the Dassault Rafale, it remains one of the leading contenders. The Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab Gripen E/F are also under consideration, offering options that are less dependent on U.S. constraints. Additionally, the Turkish-made KAAN stealth fighter, currently under development by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), could become a viable choice in the long term.
The four aircraft being considered—F-35A Lightning II, Dassault Rafale, Saab JAS 39 Gripen, and Eurofighter Typhoon—each offer distinct capabilities suited to different operational requirements. The F-35A, a fifth-generation aircraft, stands out for its stealth, advanced avionics, and data fusion capabilities, enabling operations in contested environments. However, its high costs and U.S. export restrictions impose significant constraints. The Rafale, developed by Dassault, is recognized for its multirole versatility, electronic warfare capabilities (SPECTRA), AESA radar, and operational autonomy. The Gripen, a lightweight and cost-effective fighter, emphasizes interoperability with NATO systems, simplified maintenance, and the ability to operate from austere airfields. Meanwhile, the Eurofighter Typhoon, developed through a European consortium, is highly capable in air superiority missions, featuring advanced sensors, high agility, and strong survivability, though it has higher operational costs.
If Portugal seeks a balance between performance, autonomy, and cost, the Rafale appears to be the most suitable option. It offers a proven and scalable platform with fewer operational constraints than the F-35A. The Eurofighter Typhoon, while highly capable, is expensive and more specialized for air superiority missions. The Gripen, as a lower-cost alternative, could be viable for a smaller air force looking for a flexible and economical solution.
Portugal will need to make a decision in the coming years as its F-16 fleet nears the end of its service life. The transition to a new aircraft could span a decade, with an estimated budget of €5.5 billion. This assessment is also part of a broader discussion on European strategic independence, as the EU considers expanding its defense cooperation initiatives.
