Air cargo growth stalls in June 2025 amid US trade tensions, IATA says

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a near standstill in global air cargo growth for June 2025, as renewed trade uncertainty, driven by a new wave of tariffs introduced by the United States under President Donald Trump, weighed heavily on demand.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by just 0.8% compared to June 2024. International operations recorded a slightly stronger 1.6% year-on-year increase. Available cargo capacity (ACTKs) was up 1.7%, and 2.8% for international services.

“Overall, air cargo demand grew by a modest 0.8% year-on-year in June, but there are very differing stories behind that number for the industry’s major players,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Trade tensions hit North America

The sharpest decline was observed in North America, where carriers saw an 8.3% drop in cargo traffic. The fall reflects mounting uncertainty surrounding tariffs and retaliatory measures between the US and key trading partners.

European carriers posted flat growth of 0.8%, also affected by global trade frictions. In contrast, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a robust 9.0% expansion, benefiting from relatively stable regional demand.

In the Middle East, cargo volumes fell by 3.2%, as conflict-related disruptions continued to affect operations.

“The June air cargo data made it very clear that stability and predictability are essential supports for trade,” Walsh said. “Emerging clarity on US tariffs allows businesses greater confidence in planning. But we cannot overlook the fact that the ‘deals’ being struck are resulting in significantly higher tariffs on goods imported into the US than we had just a few months ago. The economic damage of these cost barriers to trade remains to be seen.”

Recovery in fuel prices and output

Despite weak demand growth, several underlying indicators point to resilience in the broader economic backdrop. Global industrial production rose by 3.2% in May, and the trade in goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year.

Jet fuel prices in June were 12% lower than a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive month of annual decline. However, prices were up 8.6% compared to May, indicating some volatility.

Manufacturing also showed signs of recovery. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2, returning above the growth threshold. However, the export order component, though improving by 1.2 points, remained in contraction territory at 49.3, a reflection of the ongoing pressure from shifting US trade policy.

“In the meantime, governments should redouble efforts to make trade facilitation simpler, faster, cheaper and more secure with digitalization,” Walsh added.The post Air cargo growth stalls in June 2025 amid US trade tensions, IATA says appeared first on AeroTime.

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