Airbus cuts passenger aircraft demand projection in latest 20-year forecast

Airbus has published its latest rolling 20-year Global Market Forecast (GMF) indicating a slight drop in demand for new passenger aircraft compared with last year’s outlook.

On July 8, 2026, Airbus said there would be demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft between 2026 and 2045, a fall of 390 planes from its forecast last year.

When Airbus published its 2025-2044 Global Market Forecast, the company said there would be demand for 42,450 new passenger aircraft over the rolling 20-year period.

Of the 42,060 aircraft required in the next 20 years, 19,820 aircraft are expected to replace older planes, while 22,240 will support growth. Some 81% of the total will be single-aisle aircraft and 19% widebodies.

By 2045, Airbus forecasts that the percentage of the global fleet made up of the newest generation aircraft will reach almost 100%, up from around 39% in 2026.

KLM Other takeaways from the report include Airbus predicting global passenger traffic will more than double in the next 20 years.

According to Airbus, the growth is being driven by Asia with domestic travel in China accounting for the largest traffic flows, followed by domestic travel in the US and India.

Asia will also lead the demand for new passenger aircraft between 2026 and 2045 with China requiring the most planes.

Airbus also praised the A220 for making new thin routes viable across North America, Europe and Africa. Across these regions, the A220 has created 400 new routes, according to the planemaker.

Describing the A220 as the “network builder” Airbus claims that there are more than 2,200 unserved routes suited for the plane.

Airbus highlights urbanization and the middle-class demographic

Airbus said that “urbanization is shifting to smaller cities” and that the number of smaller urban centers will “grow at a significantly faster pace than larger ones”.

“With a rise in middle classes and the diaspora this will lead to new city pairings made economically viable thanks to increasingly efficient aircraft and growing passenger traffic volumes,” Airbus said.

Alongside aircraft efficiencies, the Airbus GMF forecasts expanding connectivity beyond trunk routes to smaller and medium city-pairs.

The full 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast is available on the Airbus website.

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