IATA: Air Cargo demand up by 4.4% in March 2025 as jet fuel prices fall  

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest data relating to global air demand for March 2025. The figures show that the industry continues to grow despite ongoing economic uncertainty in many markets worldwide, and despite geopolitical tension in several areas.

The highlights of IATA’s latest report, published on May 5, 2025, show that total demand for air cargo capacity, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels, with a 5.5% increase for international operations, a historic peak for the month of March. At the same time, total air freight capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024, with international operations experiencing a rise of 6.1% year-on-year.

According to the IATA report, several key factors in the operating environment affected the performance of air cargo operators during the month. Firstly, March volumes typically rise after a historic lull in the month of February each year, meaning that single-digit increases have not been unusual in the post-pandemic era. Secondly, jet fuel prices dropped 17.3% in March year-on-year, which not only reduced air cargo shipping rates more competitive versus surface marine cargo costs but also marked the ninth straight month of year-on-year declines.

Minh K Tran/ ShutterstockOther factors said to have had an impact on making air cargo more attractive to freight companies were the sharp rises in US tariffs being imposed (along with reprisal increases by other key trading countries) as well as new trade rules, and in particular the impending ban on duty-free imports from China and Hong Kong which came into effect on  May 2, 2205. All of these factors may have prompted companies and buyers to make purchases in advance of the tariff and rule changes to avoid their goods attracting significant additional import fees.

IATA said that world industrial output grew 3.2% year-on-year in March 2025, and trade volumes expanded 2.9% overall. This resulted in many key Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indices falling. Additionally, the US inflation rate was 2.4% during the month,  down 0.4 percentage points from February 2025, while the EU CPI was 2.5% and Japan’s rate fell to 3.6%. China’s economy remained in deflation, but this eased to -0.1%, added the IATA report.

“March cargo volumes were strong,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand, as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed April 2, 2025, tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how many of these proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade.”

“In the meantime, the lower fuel costs, which are also a result of the same uncertainty, are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation, we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains,” Walsh added.

KITTIKUN YOKSAP / ShutterstockRegional performance breakdown

Breaking the overall figures down by region, it becomes clear which geographical areas are driving the increase in air cargo the most.

Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 9.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March 2025, the strongest growth recorded among any of the main regions. Capacity, meanwhile, increased by 11.3% year-on-year. North Americancarriers saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in the month, while capacity increased by 6.1% year-on-year.

In Europe, carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March, while capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year. Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in March 2025. Capacity increased by 0.8% year-on-year. IATA stated in its report that there was a possibility that the “weakness in this market is due to year-on-year comparison with the strong growth at the start of 2024, resulting from disruption to Red Sea maritime freight.”

Mauvries / ShutterstockLatin American carriers saw a 5.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March, while capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year. African airlines saw a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March 2025 – the slowest among the regions, although capacity increased by 10.5% year-on-year. 

In terms of global trade lane growth, IATA said that the Europe to North America route was the busiest trade lane in March 2025. The largest trade lane by market share, Asia-North America, also grew strongly, the organization added, possibly encouraged by front-loading shipments ahead of potential increased tariffs. Meanwhile, Europe to the Middle East and Africa to Asia were the only trade lanes to decline in March. 2025.

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