IATA warns aircraft demand is set to outpace production capacity

Global aircraft and engine production is heading toward a renewed capacity crunch, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned on December 9, 2025, as delivery shortfalls surpassed 5,300 aircraft and the global order backlog climbed beyond 17,000 planes, equivalent to nearly 12 years of output at current production rates. 

Meanwhile, the average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years, and more than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, highlighting the persistent gap between demand and available aircraft despite the critical shortage of new ones. 

IATA expects limited aircraft availability to cost the airline industry over $11 billion in 2025, despite increasing aircraft deliveries. 

“Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.” 

He added that travelers are already feeling the effects of these supply constraints, as they are facing higher costs due to the tighter demand/supply conditions. 

IATA warns of new challenges in aviation 

IATA disclosed that new challenges are emerging in the industry as a result of production bottlenecks. According to the agency, airframe production is outpacing engine production, the certification timelines for new aircraft have extended to four to five years, and labor shortages are hindering manufacturing.  

Tariffs on metals and electronics stemming from US-China trade tensions have contributed to additional delays, IATA added. 

The agency also warned that fuel efficiency improvements are slowing as the fleet ages. The agency said that the air cargo fleet’s situation may change, with fewer planes available for conversion, delays in new widebody aircraft, and older freighters nearing retirement. 

According to IATA, the gap between airline demand and aircraft production is unlikely to fully recover before 2031–2034 due to “irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog”. 

To help address these long-term supply challenges, the association recommended enhancing MRO independence from OEMs, increasing supply chain visibility, utilizing data for predictive maintenance, and expanding repair and parts capacity. The post IATA warns aircraft demand is set to outpace production capacity appeared first on AeroTime.

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