Trump wants Bagram back. But could the Afghan base really counter China?

Donald Trump has vowed to reclaim Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, calling its 2021 abandonment a “terrible mistake”. But four years on, the sprawling airfield north of Kabul is a relic of a past era of warfare, and experts warn retaking it would likely mean fighting a new war. 

What Trump says Bagram could offer 

According to CNN, conversations inside the Trump administration about regaining Bagram date back to March 2025. Sources claim that Trump and his senior national security officials see the base as valuable for several reasons: its location less than 500 miles from China, enabling surveillance and deterrence; access to Afghanistan’s rare earth elements and mining; the potential to re-establish a counterterrorism node against ISIS; and even the prospect of reopening a U.S. diplomatic facility on site. 

Trump himself has repeatedly called Bagram “the world’s strongest air base,” arguing that it should never have been abandoned and that its proximity to China makes it indispensable. 

Speaking alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on September 18, 2025, Trump declared that Bagram remains a strategic asset because of its location near Chinese nuclear facilities. 

“We want that base back,” Trump said, adding that leaving it in 2021 had been a “terrible mistake”. 

Yet beyond the political symbolism, the practical question is whether Bagram could still serve the ambitious goals his team has linked to it. 

The heart of ‘America’s longest war’ 

Located 70 kilometers north of Kabul, Bagram was Afghanistan’s largest military airfield. Built with Soviet support in the 1950s and massively expanded after 2001, it had two long runways, hardened shelters, vast fuel and logistics facilities, and housing for tens of thousands of personnel. For two decades it was the beating heart of U.S. and NATO operations, supporting everything from fast jets and drones to heavy airlift. 

When US forces vacated Bagram overnight in July 2021, Afghan commanders complained they were not informed in advance. Looters ransacked the base before Afghan troops moved in, and within weeks the Taliban had seized control. They emptied the prison, freeing thousands of Taliban, al-Qaeda and ISIS-K detainees, and have held the base ever since. 

RELATED

Tajikistan may keep former Afghan Air Force aircraft

From air base to trophy 

In the years that followed, the Taliban turned Bagram into a propaganda stage. Parades marking their victory showcased captured US vehicles and weapons, fueling Trump’s criticism of the Biden administration for leaving equipment behind. In August 2025, however, the Taliban shifted their main anniversary celebration away from Bagram for the first time, instead holding it in Kabul.  

Taliban officials denied rumors of occupation of Bagram by China and have floated plans to convert former foreign bases into special economic zones. 

Recent Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from September 2025 shared by Newsweek shows Bagram’s runways and apron areas intact, but with no visible signs of large-scale flight operations, consistent with earlier open-source assessments. While the airfield’s structure remains, critical systems such as air traffic control, radar and fuel pipelines are unlikely to be functional after four years without US maintenance. 

A return that would mean re-invasion 

Establishing a counterterrorism hub at Bagram would require thousands of US troops and a complete air defense shield, effectively turning the base into a prime target for ISIS-K and other militants.  

Taliban officials have categorically rejected any US return, with foreign ministry official Zakir Jalal insisting Afghanistan will engage with Washington “without the United States maintaining any military presence in any part of Afghanistan”.  

Retaking Bagram, especially against Taliban opposition, would therefore resemble a re-invasion rather than a simple reactivation, sources told Reuters. The risks of defending such a vast facility deep inside Taliban territory, they argue, would far outweigh the benefits. 

Shifting US Air Force doctrine 

Even the US Air Force has signaled a move away from the very model Bagram represents. Speaking on September 17, 2025, Lieutenant General David A. Harris, Deputy Chief of Staff for Air Force Futures, warned that the assumptions that shaped US basing strategy for three decades are now outdated. 

“If the United States goes to war tomorrow, its Air Force will fly and fight as the world’s best,” Harris said in a column for Defense One. “But the service will operate in a world where the assumptions that shaped it for more than 30 years no longer hold.” 

Harris added that the US Air Force can “no longer rely on Bagram-style air bases as sanctuaries,” because of the rise of Chinese and other anti-access, area-denial capabilities. Instead, future deterrence will depend on agility, adaptability, and operating from smaller, austere sites with lighter footprints, a strategy known within NATO as Agile Combat Employment.  

Analysts add that surveillance of China can already be conducted through satellites, signals intelligence and cyber platforms, without the risk or cost of defending a vulnerable forward base inside Afghanistan. 

This shift in doctrine highlights the central contradiction in Trump’s call: even if Bagram were restored, it would not align with how the US military now intends to fight a near-peer conflict. The post Trump wants Bagram back. But could the Afghan base really counter China? appeared first on AeroTime.

Go to Source