United Airlines predicts ‘uncertain’ Q2 and 2025 due to economic challenges

United Airlines has forecasted a financial outlook for the second quarter and the full year of 2025 that is below expectations, attributing it to a “uncertain macroeconomic environment” that the airline considers “impossible to predict.” 

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 15, 2025, United Airlines announced its financial results for the first quarter and provided preliminary predictions for the second quarter and full-year outlook for 2025. 

However, in the filing the airline noted that it relies on the current macro environment, which the company believes is “impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence.”  

In the first quarter of 2025, United announced a revenue of $13.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 0.5% in total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM). The company’s pre-tax earnings for this period were $478 million. Adjusted pre-tax earnings stood at $391 million. Additionally, United reported diluted earnings per share of $1.16 and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.91. 

The airline announced that, according to profit sharing plans in current labor agreements, it anticipates earning between $150 million and $205 million in the second quarter of 2025. United estimated that the expense for share-based compensation, which will be used in calculating adjusted pre-tax earnings for profit sharing, is expected to be around $39 million for the second quarter of 2025. 

For the full year 2025, under stable economic conditions, the earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to be between $11.50 and $13.50. However, in a recession, it is expected to fall to a range of $7.00 to $9.00. In both scenarios, the adjusted total capital expenditures are projected to be under $6.5 billion.  

The airline said its guidance is based on “consensus market macroeconomic expectations”, therefore the company’s expectation has become “bimodal”.  

“Either the US economy will remain weaker but stable, or the US may enter into a recession,” the airline said in the filing. As a result, it has offered two separate guidance benchmarks for 2025 based on these two different macroeconomic views. 

The likelihood of a US recession has risen significantly owing to the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on several countries. Recently, Frontier Airlines announced that it expects slower revenue growth because of reduced demand for flights, which has also been affected by the new US tariffs. 

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