US warns Canada of ‘serious consequences’ if F-35 deal collapses

Canada’s ongoing review of its planned F-35 purchase is expected to wrap up by the end of September 2025 but, as highlighted by the Ottawa Citizen, the US has already warned of “serious consequences” should Ottawa abandon the deal. 

Canada’s review of its planned F-35 fighter jet purchase is expected to conclude by late September. Speaking to Ottawa Citizen, Department of National Defense spokesperson Alex Tétreault confirmed that the findings would be finalized by “the end of the calendar summer,” after which they will be submitted to Prime Minister Mark Carney for a final decision. 

Back in May 2025, US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra warned a Canadian withdrawal could jeopardize the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), which Hoekstra argued requires both nations to fly the same fighter type to remain “interchangeable.” 

NORAD is a joint US–Canada organization responsible for aerospace warning, control, and defense of the continent’s skies. It operates a network of satellites, radars, and fighter jets to detect and intercept potential threats across North America. 

A long and turbulent procurement story 

In July 2010, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government announced plans to purchase 65 F-35As for C$9 billion, arguing the aircraft was essential for Canada’s defense and Arctic sovereignty. 

That decision quickly became controversial. During the 2015 federal election campaign, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau pledged to cancel the sole-source F-35 plan, accusing the Conservatives of bypassing competition and committing to an “unnecessary and expensive fighter.” After taking office in November 2015, Trudeau’s government confirmed Canada would seek alternatives. 

This led to the launch of the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) in 2017, an open competition to replace the aging CF-18 Hornet fleet. Several manufacturers initially participated, including Boeing with the F/A-18 Super Hornet, Dassault with the Rafale, and Airbus with the Eurofighter Typhoon. However, Dassault withdrew in 2018, citing interoperability and security restrictions linked to Canada’s membership in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Airbus followed in 2019, arguing that the competition’s terms favored Lockheed Martin. In 2021, Boeing’s Super Hornet was disqualified for undisclosed reasons. 

By March 2022, the choice had narrowed to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and Saab’s Gripen. Ottawa once again selected the F-35, framing the decision around NATO obligations, NORAD interoperability, and the need to assert Arctic sovereignty. The deal was valued at around $19 billion for 88 jets, with first deliveries scheduled for 2025. 

The decision brought Canada back full circle to its original F-35 choice, though not without controversy. 

Sweden still in the picture 

Saab, however, has long argued that the competition was not conducted fairly. 

In 2023, Saab Canada President Simon Carroll accused Ottawa of breaking its own tender rules by renegotiating cost, delivery, and industrial benefit details with Lockheed Martin after bids had closed. Saab maintained that such negotiations effectively tilted the field in favor of the F-35, echoing earlier concerns voiced by Dassault and Airbus when they withdrew from the contest. 

These accusations continue to resonate today as Canada weighs whether to uphold or modify its F-35 commitment. 

Sweden has kept its fighter offer alive in a loose form through political and industrial partnerships. In August 2025, Ottawa and Stockholm announced a new aerospace and defense cooperation framework with a strong focus on Arctic security. 

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Under previous offers, Saab pledged that Gripen fighters could be assembled and maintained in Canada, ensuring local jobs and greater industrial independence. Supporters of a mixed fleet argue that the Gripen is more suited to austere Arctic airfields and Canada’s vast northern geography than the F-35. 

That industrial and strategic dimension has ensured the Gripen remains part of the conversation, even after Canada formally selected the F-35 in 2022. 

Program delays add new uncertainty 

The debate is further complicated by ongoing difficulties in the F-35 program itself. On September 3, 2025, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) revealed that the Block 4 upgrade, the version Canada intends to acquire, is now $6 billion over budget and five years behind schedule. The GAO also noted that Lockheed Martin was late in delivering all 110 F-35s in 2024, with delays averaging 238 days, compared to 61 days in 2023. 

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The Department of National Defense said it is monitoring the situation, but critics argue the delays highlight the risks of tying Canada’s fighter fleet so closely to a program controlled by Washington. 

Retired Lieutenant General Yvan Blondin, once a champion of the aircraft, has since called for the purchase to be reconsidered, citing Washington’s reliability under the Trump administration as a concern. 

“US F-35 support has to be considered in the same light as the security of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty: it may or may not be there when needed, it is not under our control,” Blondin said. 

Canada’s review will conclude within weeks. Whether Ottawa chooses to reaffirm its full 88-jet F-35 order, adjust the scope, or consider introducing a second aircraft type, the decision is sure to shape both the Royal Canadian Air Force’s future fleet and the broader trajectory of Canada’s relationship with its closest ally. The post US warns Canada of ‘serious consequences’ if F-35 deal collapses appeared first on AeroTime.

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