Virgin Australia surpasses Qantas as Australia’s dominant domestic  airline

Virgin Australia has surpassed flag carrier Qantas as Australia’s dominant domestic airline according to data published by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). At the end of 2024, the privately owned low-cost carrier snuck past its larger rival in terms of passengers carried exclusively on internal flights within Australia throughout the 2024 calendar year.

According to the competition watchdog’s report, Virgin Australia flights accounted for over a third of all domestic passengers for the year with a market share of 35%. While only edging ahead by the slimmest of margins (0.4%), the figure trumped the number achieved by Qantas at 34.6%.

With Virgin Australia taking the largest share of the domestic market, the figures reflect a larger shift in dynamics that has taken place in the Australian airline industry over the past twelve months. Indeed, the event marks the first time that Qantas has relinquished the top spot since 2022 following the upheaval caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, not just in Australia but globally.

Steve Worner / ShutterstockElsewhere in the figures, Virgin Australia achieved impressive growth figures for December 2024. The carrier recorded a 15.8% increase in domestic passenger numbers over the same month in 2023, indicating a solid performance coupled with the expansion of its fleet which currently consists of 199 aircraft. In contrast, Qantas achieved a more muted 3.2% for the same period. The Qantas Group’s low-cost subsidiary Jetstar saw passenger numbers rise by 11.2% in the year, and ending 2024 with a 29% market share,

The ACCC figures show that the average load factor on Australian domestic flights reached new levels, with a new high of 90.4% being set in November 2024, a figure that sits well above the annual average of 82.9 and the highest since the ACCC first recorded these figures in 2019. Again, Virgin Australia led the way by achieving the highest load factor at 93.4%.

According to the ACCC, it was Virgin Australia that benefitted most from the failure of regional carrier Rex in mid-2024, following that airline’s ill-fated attempt to encroach onto routes between the capital cities using a fleet of leased Boeing 737-800s. Additionally, although both carriers will have benefitted marginally from the failure of budget carrier Bonza in April 2024, as that carrier operated largely a network that served routes not flown by either Virgin Australia or Qantas, the impact was considered minimal.

Rex AirlinesWhile overall service reliability showed mixed results for 2024, with the industry’s cancellation rate improving to 1.8% in December 2024, some airlines fared better than others, beating the long-term average of 2.2%. Once more, Virgin Australia beat off its rivals to achieve the highest figure for punctuality with only 0.6% of its flights being canceled in 2024. However, the ACCC concluded that on-time performance remains a challenge across the industry, with a disappointing 74.7% on-time arrival rate in December – a figure that falls short of the 80.7% long-term average.

Virgin Australia’s overall performance for 2024 has renewed speculation that the airline’s owners Bain Capital could consider relisting the airline on the Australian Stock Exchange. Separately, the ACCC said it plans to approve a proposed alliance between Virgin Australia and Qatar Airways, which will see 28 new weekly return services between Doha and Perth, Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, some of which will be operated by Virgin Australia using leased Qatar Airways Boeing 777-300ERs.  

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