War in Syria: the aviation element in Assad’s downfall

The momentous, and rather unexpected, sequence of events that have led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has also had a chapter played out in the skies above Syria. 

As of December 8, 2024, the situation remains extremely fluid and not many details are known of the hours prior to the final disintegration of the Assadist regime, however, a number of episodes have involved aircraft and air movements by several of the parties involved in this long-lasting conflict, let’s see what these are. 

First and foremost, a cloud of uncertainty surrounds the fate of an Ilyushin Il-76T aircraft, operated by Syrian Air, which had departed Damascus on the night of December 7-8, 2024, and suddenly disappeared from flight tracking apps while overflying the city of Homs, recently taken by rebel forces.

Some commentators have suggested that Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad may have been in this aircraft, although no official source has confirmed this point, instead, a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry suggests that Assad has actually left Syria. 

Similarly, rumors swirled online about other flights that have departed Damascus a bit earlier. An Embraer Legacy 600 executive jet (registration C5-SKY), in particular, has arisen suspicions among conflict observers, since it has completed several flights between the Syrian capital and Abu Dhabi (AUH) in early December, prompting speculations that members of Assad’s family may have been onboard. 

All other regular flights were cancelled at Damascus international airport (DAM), amidst a total breakdown of security in different parts of Syria. 

Images posted online showing chaotic scenes at Damascus international airport, where police and other security personnel appear to have fled their posts, leaving free entry to what are usually restricted areas of the airport.  

Scheduled services were already quite limited at Syrian airports, with most international airlines avoiding flights over Syrian airspace.

Data from Cirium SRS Analyzer shows how, in November 2024, right before the latest regime-changing events, local airlines Syrian Air and Cham Wings Airlines accounted for the vast majority of commercial flights operating at Damascus international airport. Only some Irani and Iraqi carriers operated a small number of international services out of the Syrian capital. 

Other movements over Syrian airspace have been performed by Russian and Iranian aircraft, presumably with the intention of evacuating personnel from bases near Syria’s Mediterranean coast.  

At least one Russian Il-76 and an An-124 have been spotted on Flightradar24 approaching to land at Hmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia and a major logistical outpost for Russian forces in Syria.

Likewise, Iran appears to have sent at least one Il-76, an A340 and a Boeing 747, the latter two operated by Mahan Air, a carrier that has been linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF). 

Yet another actor that has been active over Syrian skies in the last few hours is the Israeli Air Force, which has launched air attacks against several targets in southern Syria, reportedly to destroy stocks of weapons and other military equipment ahead of the expected regime change.  

The Israeli Air Force appears to be carrying out a Widespread Strike Campaign right now against Military Targets in Southern Syria, likely to prevent certain Equipment and Systems from falling into the hands of Rebel Forces. So far Strikes have targeted Khalkhakah Air Base in the… pic.twitter.com/Md2gqCJ1Ow— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 8, 2024During the rebel advance through Syria in early December there have been several instances of aircraft, including a MiG-23 jet, and a Mil Mi-8 helicopter, falling into the hands of the insurgents, as government forces abandoned their positions. 

Syrian opposition fighters are trying to learn how to drive a helicopter by watching YouTube videos. pic.twitter.com/DEKIZyaWLl— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 5, 2024The post War in Syria: the aviation element in Assad’s downfall appeared first on AeroTime.

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