Lithuania warns Russia could use Ukrainian drones in false flag attack 

Lithuanian military intelligence believes Russia is considering using Ukrainian-made drones to strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic region in an operation designed to obscure who launched it, Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed on August 6, 2026. 

The assessment was first reported by the Lithuanian news portal 15min.lt. Kaunas told the outlet that Lithuania has information indicating Moscow is weighing “unconventional kinetic attacks” against critical infrastructure in the region, and that Ukrainian-made drones would be the likely means. 

Speaking to reporters in Vilnius later the same day, Kaunas described the scenario as “a false flag operation, using a false Ukrainian drone.”  

The minister said one objective would be to weaken allied support for Kyiv, and indicated that no decision to carry out such an operation had been taken and that there was no sign of an imminent threat. Kaunas did not identify potential targets or a timeframe. 

Drone incursions have already tested Baltic defenses  

Wreckage of a Russian-made Gerbera drone found at the Gaižiūnai military training area in Lithuania in July 2025. (Credit: Lithuanian Armed Forces)Two Russian-designed Gerbera airframes crossed into Lithuania from Belarus in July 2025, the second overflying Vilnius before crashing inside the Gaižiūnai training area with an active warhead aboard, prompting Vilnius to close part of its airspace along the Belarusian border. A further suspected cross-border drone exploded in southern Lithuania in March 2026. 

Baltic officials have assessed other incursions as Ukrainian long-range strike drones knocked off course by Russian jamming and spoofing. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing fighters have engaged several of them: a Romanian Air Force F-16 shot down one over southern Estonia on May 19, 2026, and a French Air and Space Force Rafale destroyed another over Latvia on June 8, 2026, both operating from Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania.  

Lithuania and Latvia issued air danger alerts and briefly closed airspace over Vilnius Airport on May 20, 2026. 

Baltic states seek a full NATO air defense mission  

The warning follows a joint call in May 2026 by the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for NATO to move from air policing to a full air defense mission with dedicated counter-drone capabilities. 

Moscow denies planning attacks against NATO members, and the Kremlin has previously dismissed similar Lithuanian warnings as a pretext for rearmament. Russia has separately accused the Baltic states of allowing their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes, an allegation Vilnius and Kyiv both reject. The post Lithuania warns Russia could use Ukrainian drones in false flag attack  appeared first on AeroTime.

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