Will France deploy Rafale jets armed with nuclear missiles to Germany?

Amid increasing tensions with transatlantic relationships, discussions have arisen about the possible deployment of French Rafale fighter jets to Germany. This move indicates a shift in Europe’s defense strategy, driven by ongoing concerns about the dependability of US security guarantees and nuclear deterrence. 

On February 24, 2025, the British daily The Telegraph, citing a French official, reported that Paris was considering deploying Rafale fighter jets from the Strategic Air Force (FAS) to Germany.  

“Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a strong message [to Russia],” said the source, whose comments have not been officially confirmed.  

The future of Europe’s nuclear deterrence 

Currently, some of the European deterrence is handled by the NATO nuclear sharing agreement. During the Cold War, NATO nuclear sharing was established to ensure a quick response to potential nuclear threats from countries like the former Soviet Union.  

As part of this agreement, several European NATO member states, such as Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey, have hosted US B61 nuclear gravity bombs on different bases. 

To participate in this program, countries must have combat aircraft capable of deploying these weapons. Interestingly, all these countries, except Turkey, are expected to operate the F-35A Lightning II. In this format, deterrence is heavily tied to the United States. 

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That said, the re-election of President Donald Trump once again raises the question of the future of the US “nuclear umbrella” over Europe after signals that Washington intends to disengage militarily from Europe to better concentrate on the Indo-Pacific. 

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative CDU/CSU who won the German federal elections on February 23, 2025, said he has made it his “absolute priority” to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible in order to achieve, step by step, real independence from the United States.” 

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing or at least nuclear security from the United Kingdom and France, could also apply to us,” Merz said. 

Strategic advantage of France’s nuclear umbrella 

In any case, only France is in a position to deploy nuclear-capable aircraft to Germany, as the United Kingdom has dismantled the airborne component of its nuclear deterrent.  

France’s nuclear doctrine is based on “strict sufficiency”, meaning its arsenal is designed to be just large enough to deter any potential adversary through the threat of unacceptable damage. Unlike the United States or Russia, which maintain large, multi-layered nuclear forces, France prioritizes a smaller but highly survivable deterrent, including both airborne and submarine-launched capabilities. 

Unlike NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement, which relies on US-controlled B61 bombs, France’s nuclear forces operate entirely independently. These systems are both outside NATO’s nuclear framework and fully sovereign, with all components designed and manufactured to be “ITAR-free,” meaning they do not fall under US International Traffic in Arms Regulations. This distinction ensures that France retains full operational control over its nuclear capabilities without external restrictions, reinforcing its strategic autonomy within Europe. 

French Rafale fighters are already regularly deployed on the eastern flank of Europe, namely on Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania and Ämari Air Base in Estonia, as part of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission. This mission is meant to protect the three Baltic states from aerial incursions and provide support in case of air emergencies since these countries have no airborne capability of their own. Rafales were also exceptionally sent to Malbork in Poland in May 2014, shortly after the annexation of Crimea. 

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