Ryanair warns some European airlines may not survive winter fuel crisis

Ryanair is cutting its passenger growth target and holding winter capacity roughly flat, while warning that some less-protected carriers may not make it through the coming winter as soaring jet fuel prices squeeze airlines across Europe.

The Irish low-cost carrier said on September 2, 2026, that it now expects to carry 214 million passengers in its fiscal 2027 year, down from an earlier forecast of 216 million. Ryanair said the reduction is intended to limit its exposure to fuel costs during the typically loss-making winter season.

Ryanair predicted that less well-hedged competitors could “struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this coming winter season” if high oil prices persist into 2027.

The warning comes as jet fuel trades at around $140 per barrel, according to Ryanair, more than double the price at which the airline locked in most of its own fuel requirements.

Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel through March 2027 at roughly $67 per barrel, leaving about one-fifth of its requirements exposed to current market prices. Fuel hedging allows airlines to lock in prices in advance, limiting their exposure when oil prices rise sharply.

That protection helps explain why Ryanair is commenting on the prospects of its competitors. The airline sees its relatively low locked-in fuel price as a competitive advantage over carriers that entered the current fuel crisis with a larger share of their requirements unhedged.

Even Ryanair, however, is feeling the impact. Despite having most of its fuel protected, the carrier is reducing its full-year traffic forecast and limiting winter growth to reduce the amount of fuel it must buy at current prices.

Ryanair estimates the move will reduce its winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million.

The sharp rise in fuel costs has followed the Iran war and disruption to global energy markets, putting new pressure on an industry for which fuel is already one of the largest operating expenses. The effect can vary significantly between airlines depending on how much fuel they hedged, the prices they locked in and when those contracts expire.

The timing is particularly difficult for European airlines because November through March is generally the weakest part of the year. Airlines typically generate much of their profit during the busy summer travel season and accept weaker results, or losses, during the winter.

Ryanair’s decision does not appear to reflect weakening passenger demand. The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% from a year earlier, while traffic during the April-to-October summer period is expected to grow by more than 5%.

Instead, the airline is deliberately restraining winter growth to reduce its exposure to fuel purchased at current prices.

Ryanair still expects to remain profitable for the full fiscal year, although it has said earnings will likely fall below the record level achieved in the previous year. The carrier has not issued detailed profit-after-tax guidance for fiscal 2027.

Ryanair also warned that passengers could eventually feel the impact. If oil prices remain high into summer 2027, the airline expects short-haul fares across Europe to rise as carriers try to offset higher fuel costs.The post Ryanair warns some European airlines may not survive winter fuel crisis appeared first on AeroTime.

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